Client issue: peak fulfillment from 15 Oct cuts break-even before PBDD spend
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Who it hits
US (and Canada where peak applies) FBA catalogs advertising into PBDD / BFCM with bid ceilings set on summer fees.
What to do this week
This week: Fee Preview with peak rates on every advertised hero. Apply the live surcharge rule. Cut ranking where contribution no longer clears. Put 15 Oct and 15 Jan on the same calendar as PBDD (6–7 Oct).
Why founders feel this as “ads broke”
PBDD (6–7 Oct) lands before the peak clock. Brands scale exact in early October on summer contribution, then peak fees hit mid-month while CPCs are still high. ACOS looks “a bit worse.” Cash is a lot worse. That is a fee + event stack, not a mysterious auction.
| Clock | What to do on ads |
|---|---|
| Now → 5 Oct | Rebuild break-even with peak + surcharge on Fee Preview. Cap heroes that only cleared summer fees. |
| 6–7 Oct PBDD | Spend only where contribution still holds after the peak model. Do not “win the event” on a SKU that fails 15 Oct math. |
| 15 Oct peak starts | Re-check Fee Preview. Cut ranking that drifted over the floor. Keep brand defense if the offer is still buyable. |
| 15 Jan 2027 | Non-peak returns (confirm live). Re-open ceilings only after Fee Preview, not by calendar habit. |
This week
- Reports → Fee Preview (confirm path). Export advertised FNSKUs. Note peak vs non-peak if both show.
- Multiply fulfillment by the live surcharge rule Amazon shows (3.5% on fulfillment is the common US/CA framing — confirm).
- Rewrite max CPC / ACOS floor per hero in the weekly log. No account-wide “Q4 ACOS target.”
- Cross-check aged inventory and low-inventory fees on the same heroes — peak plus LIL is a double hit.
- Read Q4 windows, PBDD, and Q4 bid ceiling SOP.
Confirm live peak dates, which programs peak hits (FBA / MCF / Remote / BwP), and Canada separately. Amazon runs the fee table. This desk does not guarantee ACOS through Q4.
FAQ
Should I lower every bid on 15 Oct?
No. Lower where contribution fails the new floor. Heroes with margin headroom can keep event pressure. Blind across-the-board cuts waste rank you already paid for.
Does peak storage count the same way?
Peak storage is a different clock (often from 1 Oct — confirm live). Model storage on cubic feet; model fulfillment on units shipped. Both hit contribution; only one is a per-unit FBA line on the order.
Source: Amazon fee tools / Seller Central peak fulfillment help (confirm live dates and dollars) · Confirm live numbers in Seller Central. This desk is the method, not a rate card.
Stuck on this change?
I will walk the public listing, say whether this change is leaking spend, and what week one would be.
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